Bitcoin’s performance has become a source of interest, particularly following a bullish run maintained for the past few weeks. However, Kraken, one of the industry’s top exchanges, has released some ominous signs for the leading cryptocurrency as we begin rounding out the year.
A Historically Terrible Month
This week, Kraken published its August 2020 volatility report. The exchange explained that Bitcoin would most likely have a rough month in September, although this will set it up for a stronger comeback to round out the year.
Kraken specifically noted that September has historically been Bitcoin’s worst-performing month. Average returns for the month since the asset was created have been -7 percent. The exchange also pointed out that the asset has underperformed its average returns most months this year, and going by historical records, September will be much worse than the others.
Amid this drawback, Kraken explained that there’s still a lot of hope going forward. The exchange noted that Bitcoin’s supply has barely moved from its record levels in over a year — a dynamic that has historically preceded a bull market.
“Twelve times in the past, Bitcoin’s annualized volatility bottomed between 15% and 30% before climbing, on average, to 140% and returning +196% over 94 days. As of the end of August, 38 days have passed since the volatility low of 23% set on July 24, with volatility rising to 44% and price gaining +25%,” the report analyzed.
Inverse to the Dollar
Kraken’s report is coming amid fears that Bitcoin might be slipping into bearish territory once more. The asset has been on a tear recently, breaking past the $12,000 mark multiple times in August. The asset’s performance came on the back of the dollar, which has taken numerous hits due to the coronavirus and surging unemployment numbers.
Last week, the Federal Reserve said it would allow inflation to rise above the planned two percent cap. That announcement alone caused Bitcoin to surge even more. Still, this was amid a suspicious slide that had investors on edge. Eventually, Bitcoin would see a lot of $9,800 over the weekend.
Bitcoin’s weak performance continued into this week, with the asset seeing a low price point of $9,900 several times yesterday. Although the asset has managed to rise by 1.68 percent and cross the $10,000 mark once more, investors are beginning to doubt its reliability once more.
Kraken is also not the only agency to be reporting a possible lower consolidation. Willy Woo, an on-chain market analyst, recently tweeted that Bitcoin’s short-term outlook is a bit “shaky.” However, like Kraken, Woo also forecasted that the asset’s medium and long-term outlooks are strong.
Many attribute the slump to increased trust in the dollar, which has been showing steady gains. Gold, another alternative asset that has gained significantly off the dollar’s slump, fell heading into last week too.
Edward Meir, an analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets, told CNBC that the reversal of fortunes was the strengthening dollar, which itself was buoyed by the surge in manufacturing jobs. As the American economy — and the greenback— keeps clawing its way out of the coronavirus hole, this trend should continue.